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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 25
2016-10-10 10:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 100833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 65.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 65.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.8N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.6N 65.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.8N 66.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 38.5N 56.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-10 04:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2016 02:44:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2016 02:42:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-10-10 04:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100243 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 Depp convection associated with Nicole has decreased since the last advisory, with the primary convection now confined to an area south of the center. It is unclear whether this is due to the normal diurnal convective minimum, entrainment of dry air seen near the center in water vapor imagery, or the result of cooling sea surface temperatures under the stationary storm. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt, while the latest satellite consensus estimate from CIMSS is 51 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Nicole is now drifting northward, and this motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours as a blocking ridge of high pressure north of the cyclone weakens. A deep-layer trough associated with former Hurricane Matthew is forecast to pass north of Nicole, with a second ridge passing north of the storm after 24 hours. This should cause a northwestward turn, and the guidance during this stage of the forecast has shifted left since the previous advisory. After 72 hours, a new trough moving eastward from the United States should cause Nicole to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new forecast track is shifted to the left between 24-72 hours, but still lies to the east of the various consensus models. After 72 hours, the track lies a little north of the previous track. A combination of the above mentioned dry air, possible cooler waters, and continuing strong northerly shear should limit intensification for the next 12 hours or so. After that, the shear should gradually subside and allow Nicole to intensify if the cyclone does not entrain too much low-level dry air brought southward due to Matthew. The environment is most favorable at about 72 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a slightly increased peak intensity of 85 kt in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After that time, the cyclone is expected to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies with increased shear partly compensated for by increased upper-level divergence. This environment should lead to gradual weakening with extratropical transition beginning near 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 24.4N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.1N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 26.6N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 28.5N 66.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 37.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2016-10-10 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 100243 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 39(56) 10(66) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 7(33) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-10 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE NOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 9 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.4, -65.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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