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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Graphics

2016-10-24 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Oct 2016 08:55:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Oct 2016 08:53:37 GMT

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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-10-24 10:53:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240853 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 Seymour continues to strengthen this morning. Satellite data indicate that the banding features have continued to improve and a small central dense overcast feature has developed and become more symmetric. Although earlier microwave imagery revealed a mid-level eye feature, there has been no recent microwave data to diagnose the structure of the inner core. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to 55 and 65 kt, respectively, and as a result the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. Seymour continues to move west-northwestward at about 13 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Seymour should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from Mexico. In a couple of days, the cyclone will approach the western portion of the ridge and Seymour should respond by turning northwestward. After 72 hours, an approaching shortwave trough should steer Seymour northward, then northeastward. The model guidance is in good agreement through the first 3 days, but after that time there is more spread in the track models this cycle. The ECMWF and UKMET models have trended faster and take Seymour much farther north at 96 h and 120 h than the remainder of the guidance. Since Seymour is expected to rapidly weaken and become an increasingly shallow system, the NHC forecast leans toward the slower and more southern solutions late in the forecast period. Seymour is forecast to traverse very warm water and remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and high mid-level moisture during the next day or two. These conditions should allow the cyclone to quickly strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours and like the previous advisory, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a 78 percent chance of a 30 kt or more increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 100 kt in 48 hours, which is slightly below the LGEM, FSSE, and NOAA corrected consensus (HCCA) models. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause a rapid spin down of the tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.9N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 16.0N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 19.6N 121.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 23.0N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)

2016-10-24 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 14.9, -108.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 5

2016-10-24 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 ...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 108.5W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Seymour was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 108.5 West. Seymour is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Seymour is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and could be near major hurricane strength by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2016-10-24 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240853 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 94 X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 110W 50 51 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 110W 64 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 4(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 9( 9) 43(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 54(61) 5(66) X(66) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 4(33) X(33) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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