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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)

2016-10-25 16:43:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 15.6, -115.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 10

2016-10-25 16:43:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251443 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 ...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 115.0W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 115.0 West. Seymour is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight, and a turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Seymour is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected today. After that, Seymour is expected to weaken Wednesday through Thursday. Seymour is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2016-10-25 16:43:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251443 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 120W 34 1 12(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 13(32) 4(36) 1(37) X(37) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 10

2016-10-25 16:43:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251442 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 122.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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