je.st
news
Tag: seymour
Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-26 11:06:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 08:47:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 09:03:35 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
seymour
hurricane graphics
Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-10-26 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260849 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 Seymour remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite pictures, with a very distinct eye surrounded by a symmetric CDO. Subjective and objective Dvorak current intensity numbers are unchanged from before and the initial intensity remains 130 kt for this advisory. Some slight strengthening is still possible this morning while Seymour remains over warm water and in a low shear environment, however, by this afternoon the hurricane will begin moving over slightly lower SSTs, which should start the weakening process. Seymour is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm tonight and move over colder waters and into an area of strong southwesterly wind shear thereafter. These conditions are expected to cause a very rapid decrease in intensity on Thursday, and Seymour is forecast to become a tropical storm within 48 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Friday or early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A deepening mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery near 140W is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge that has been steering Seymour westward during the past few days. As the ridge weakens, Seymour is forecast to turn northwestward, then northward ahead of the trough. After 48 hours, Seymour's forward motion should decrease as it becomes vertically shallow and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The latest guidance envelope has shifted northward and eastward at 36 h and beyond, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.4N 119.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-10-26 10:47:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260847 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 2 12(14) 8(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-26 10:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE SEYMOUR MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 16.4, -119.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
seymour
ep5ep202016
Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 13
2016-10-26 10:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260846 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 ...POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE SEYMOUR MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 119.0W ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 119.0 West. Seymour is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Seymour is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday night. Seymour remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »