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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-10-26 10:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260846 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 119.0W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 119.0W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.2N 120.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-26 05:06:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 02:51:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 03:03:35 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-10-26 04:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260252 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Seymour has continued to rapidly intensify since the last advisory. The eye is about 10-15 nmi wide in infrared satellite imagery, but is less than 10 nmi wide in a recent 0005Z SSMI/S microwave image, indicating that the eye diameter has contracted since the previous advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 130 kt for this advisory based on satellite intensity estimates of T6.5/127 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and a T6.7/132 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion is now 285/13 kt. The global and regional models remain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving steadily west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest in 36 hours as a strong shortwave trough significantly erodes the western portion of the ridge. By 48 hours, Seymour is expected to slow down appreciably and turn north-northwestward as the cyclone rapidly weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. After that time, the shallow post-tropical low is forecast to turn back toward the west-northwest under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to blend of the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next 6-12 hours due to the small eye, low shear conditions, and warm SSTs. After that time, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, cooler waters, including significant cold upwelling by 24 hours and beyond, should cause steady to rapid weakening. Seymour is expected to drop below hurricane status shortly after 48 hours, degenerate into a post-tropical low by 72 hours, and dissipate by 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and is close to the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.1N 117.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 119.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.9N 121.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 19.2N 122.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/0000Z 21.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-26 04:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 25 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 16.1, -117.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 12
2016-10-26 04:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260250 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 ...POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 117.7W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 117.7 West. Seymour is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Seymour is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight and into Wednesday morning, followed by steady weakening Wednesday night and Thursday. Seymour remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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