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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics

2016-10-26 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 14:37:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2016 14:33:33 GMT

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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2016-10-26 16:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261436 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)

2016-10-26 16:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SEYMOUR STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...BUT FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 16.9, -120.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 14

2016-10-26 16:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 ...SEYMOUR STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...BUT FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 120.2W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 120.2 West. Seymour is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest should occur later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed by Thursday. A turn toward the north with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Seymour is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is expected, and rapid weakening should begin by tonight or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 14

2016-10-26 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261433 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.7N 122.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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