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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-13 23:13:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Aug 2014 20:51:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Aug 2014 21:05:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-13 22:51:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132051 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Karina is experiencing some issues with dry air entrainment and modest north to northeasterly wind shear since the previous advisory, which has resulted in some erosion of the large outer convective band on the west side along with the central deep convection. However, two recent scatterometer overpasses indicate that Karina's circulation is well developed and compact, and that the radius of maximum winds has decreased to around 10-15 nmi. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on surface wind data of 40 kt from a 1649 UTC ASCAT-B overpass and 41 kt from a 1736 UTC ASCAT-A overpass, and assuming that the scatterometers are under-sampling the very small inner-core wind field. Karina continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Karina is expected to maintain a general westward motion for the next 5 days as the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The model guidance is tightly packed through 72 hours, with the models diverging significantly after that. However, the model spread has decreased on this cycle now that the new 1200 UTC ECMWF model run has shifted farther to the north, closer to the other global models and the previous NHC forecast track. The new forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. Convection has developed during the past few hours within the dry slot in the eastern semicircle, and a small burst of convection has also developed very near the well-defined low-level circulation center. All of this would suggest that the aforementioned dry air issues will likely be short-lived. Over the next 3 days, the vertical shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt while the cyclone remains over SSTs of 28C-29C and within a fairly moist mid-level environment. Only the proximity to cooler and more stable air just west and northwest of the cyclone precludes a near-term forecast of rapid intensification. However, the trend over the next 72 hours calls for at least steady intensification, with Karina reaching hurricane strength by 36 hours. After that, the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTS and into a more stable air mass, which should induce gradual weakening. However, the low vertical wind shear environment is expected to result in slower weakening than normally would occur over such marginal SSTs on Days 4 and 5. The NHC official intensity forecast remains higher than the ICON intensity consensus model, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.3N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.6N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 18.2N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 18.4N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-08-13 22:50:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 132050 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 10 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-13 22:50:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 the center of KARINA was located near 17.2, -112.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 4
2014-08-13 22:50:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132050 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 ...KARINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 112.6W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARINA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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