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Hurricane KARINA Graphics
2014-08-15 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Aug 2014 02:35:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Aug 2014 02:33:43 GMT
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-15 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150234 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 Karina's structure has degraded significantly since the last advisory. A 2326 UTC AMSU pass showed that the low-level center has become displaced from the deep convection due to 20-25 kt of easterly shear, as diagnosed by CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. In addition, cloud top temperatures have warmed during the past few hours. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, but this could be a little generous. The recent evolution of Karina's structure makes the intensity forecast quite tricky. The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be responding to less of a positive contribution from persistence and GOES satellite predictors, and show much less strengthening than before. The GFDL and HWRF, on the other hand, continue their pattern of showing more immediate weakening. Since vertical shear is expected to remain rather strong for another 36-48 hours, Karina may have a difficult time recovering. Therefore, the new NHC intensity forecast has been lowered for the entire forecast period but still lies above all of the guidance, especially beyond 24 hours. If Karina cannot recover soon, however, subsequent forecasts will likely require additional decreases to fall in line with the preponderance of the intensity model solutions. The mid-tropospheric pattern consists of a mid-level high centered over the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending west-southwestward over the Pacific. The ridge is steering Karina westward, or 270/11 kt, and the subtropical ridge is expected to keep the cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward track through the forecast period. Karina could begin to interact with one or two adjacent disturbances toward the end of the forecast period, possibly forcing it to move west-southwestward and at a slower speed by day 5. The track guidance envelope shifted to the north on this cycle, but it was not enough to require a significant change from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.1N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-15 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA BARELY A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 14 the center of KARINA was located near 17.1, -118.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane KARINA Public Advisory Number 9
2014-08-15 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 ...KARINA BARELY A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 118.3W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-08-15 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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