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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-14 04:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Analyses from the University of Wisconsin indicate that about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but recent microwave images suggest that Karina is succeeding in maintaining a tight inner core. Maximum winds are held at 45 kt on this advisory based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB and T2.8/41 kt from the ADT. Even though vertical shear is expected to only gradually diminish during the next day or two, its easterly to east-northeasterly direction should still allow strengthening during that time. In fact, the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 25-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours. Since environmental conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, closely following the SHIPS and FSU Superensemble models during the first 3 days. Only gradual weakening is indicated on days 4 and 5, mainly due to less favorable thermodynamic conditions. Karina continues moving westward, or 275/13 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to continuing exerting its influence for the next several days, and the track guidance is tightly clustered on a westward trajectory through 48 hours. The spread in the guidance beyond 48 hours appears to be the result of how Karina interacts with two adjacent disturbances. The GFS shows Karina interacting with a strengthening cyclone to its west, with the resulting flow keeping it farther north and on the northern side of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF, on the other hand, shows more interaction between Karina and a possible cyclone to its east, which forces Karina southwestward and on the southern side of the guidance envelope. Due to the high uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve by day 5, the official forecast maintains Karina on a general westward, but decelerating, motion toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.4N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-14 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 the center of KARINA was located near 17.4, -114.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 5
2014-08-14 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140243 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 ...KARINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 114.1W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-08-14 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140243 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.7N 120.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 122.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-08-14 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140243 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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