je.st
news
Tag: karina
Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-16 11:07:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2014 08:39:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2014 09:03:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
karina
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-16 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160838 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 Karina continues to be affected by about 15 kt of easterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located just to the northeast of a burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -80C. Satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from SAB. In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass showed 35-40 kt winds about 40 n mi north of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The initial motion is now 285/9, with Karina continuing to be steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. This ridge will build westward during the next couple of days, followed by an amplification of a ridge well north of the Hawaiian Islands. These developments should result in Karina turning westward later today and then turning a little south of due west during the middle of the forecast period. The steering current are expected to collapse after 72 hours as a mid/upper-level trough likely develops off the west coast of North America and other areas of disturbed weather develop east and west of the cyclone. During this time, the GFS and Canadian models forecast a loop back to the east, the ECMWF and UKMET models forecast a slow westward motion, and the NAVGEM and GFS ensemble mean forecast a slow northward motion. The official forecast track compromises between these forecasts by showing a westward drift. Overall, the new track is again similar to the old track and near the multi-model consensus. The large-scale models forecast the shear to decrease during the next 48 hours or so. However, Karina will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the forecast track keeps the center near the 26C isotherm after 48 hours. In the short term, Karina is expected to weaken a little more. While the official forecast keeps the system as a tropical storm, an alternate scenario is shown by the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast it to weaken to a depression. After 48 hours, the guidance suggests Karina could re-intensify if it is not absorbed by one of the nearby disturbances. The latter part of the official forecast reflects this by showing modest strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 18.1N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 18.0N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 17.6N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-16 10:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 16 the center of KARINA was located near 18.1, -122.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 14
2014-08-16 10:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 ...KARINA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 122.9W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-08-16 10:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 60SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 122.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 128.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 122.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] next »