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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-08-15 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 150233 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane KARINA Graphics
2014-08-14 23:13:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Aug 2014 20:47:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Aug 2014 21:05:31 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-14 22:46:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 14 the center of KARINA was located near 17.1, -117.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane KARINA Public Advisory Number 8
2014-08-14 22:46:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142046 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 ...KARINA STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 117.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-08-14 22:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 142046 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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