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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 29
2019-09-10 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 759 WTNT43 KNHC 101444 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 Gabrielle has now completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone this morning based on the latest GOES-16 satellite imagery. The center of the storm has now become exposed with convection displaced to the north of the center, and a well-defined baroclinic zone has become established in association with the low center. Thus Gabrielle is now an extratropical low, and this is the latest advisory on this system. The intensity remains 45 knots based on scatterometer data and TAFB Dvorak intensity estimates. Models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone will move northeastward and slowly weaken through midweek with the system evolving into an open trough and dissipating beyond 36 hours prior to reaching the British Isles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 43.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0000Z 45.9N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1200Z 49.2N 25.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 52.5N 16.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hamrick/Blake
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-10 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 10 the center of Gabrielle was located near 43.9, -37.8 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 29
2019-09-10 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.9N 37.8W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 37.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is expected to weaken over the next two days and dissipate over the far North Atlantic west of the British Isles on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml $$ Forecaster Hamrick/Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2019-09-10 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 101443 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAMRICK/BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 29
2019-09-10 16:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101442 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 37.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 360SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 37.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 39.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.9N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 49.2N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 52.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 37.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAMRICK/BLAKE
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