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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 61A
2019-09-08 13:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081151 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 61A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...CENTER OF DORIAN PASSING EAST OF ANTICOSTI ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...49.4N 60.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HEATH POINT ANTICOSTI ISLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 49.4 North, longitude 60.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over western Newfoundland later today and then enter the North Atlantic this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water. The post- tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength after passing Newfoundland later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at Heath Point on Anticosti Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in Newfoundland today. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through tonight: New Brunswick...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Graphics
2019-09-08 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 08:42:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 09:24:41 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 61
2019-09-08 10:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080840 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian passed very near the Magdalen Islands around 0600 UTC, and is now between the west coast of Newfoundland and Anticosti Island. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the wind field remains quite large, but the peak winds have decreased since yesterday. Therefore, the initial intensity has been set at 70 kt. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful storm through this afternoon, but the global models show steady weakening after the center moves northeast of Newfoundland tonight. The cyclone is moving north-northeastward or 025/23 kt. Dorian should continue north-northeastward today, then turn east- northeastward over the North Atlantic as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. The post-tropical cyclone should should be absorbed by another extratropical low over the North Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in portions of eastern Nova Scotia and are spreading into western Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 48.5N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1800Z 50.9N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0600Z 53.6N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 55.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 57.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 61
2019-09-08 10:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 080840 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 61 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-08 10:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL DORIAN HEADING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Dorian was located near 48.5, -61.1 with movement NNE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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