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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-08 19:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF DORIAN NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Dorian was located near 50.5, -58.7 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 62A
2019-09-08 19:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081736 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 62A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...CENTER OF DORIAN NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...50.5N 58.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CHEVERY QUEBEC ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF CAPE ST. GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 50.5 North, longitude 58.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador this afternoon and then enter the North Atlantic this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water near the west coast of Newfoundland. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength after passing Newfoundland later today, and it is forecast to be absorbed by another large low pressure system in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). Stephenville, Newfoundland, recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Hurricane Warning area in Newfoundland at this time, and hurricane conditions are expected during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador. SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Graphics
2019-09-08 16:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 14:55:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 14:55:34 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 62
2019-09-08 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 081453 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. There are no observations from the area southeast of the center where the strongest winds are likely to be. However, the winds at the nearby land stations are gradually decreasing. Based on this and some decay in the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. The global models forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The cyclone is now moving northeastward or 035/22 kt. This general motion should continue through this evening, with the center of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the previous advisory. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland, and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread into western Newfoundland this afternoon. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 50.0N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0000Z 52.3N 55.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1200Z 54.7N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 56.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 62
2019-09-08 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 081452 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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