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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Graphics
2019-09-08 04:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 02:36:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 03:24:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 60
2019-09-08 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080233 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island. The wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian Maritimes. The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast by most of the global models. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days. Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare this forecast. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 46.3N 62.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 52.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 60
2019-09-08 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 080232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN WREAKING HAVOC OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ...HALF A MILLION CUSTOMERS WITH NO POWER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.3N 62.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MADGALEN ISLANDS ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour * Magdalen Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 62.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over western Newfoundland on Sunday and then enter the North Atlantic late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occcuring mainly over water. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area overnight and Sunday. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Sunday Night: Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 60
2019-09-08 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 080232 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 2 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ILE ST PIERRE 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BURGEO NFLD 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BURGEO NFLD 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PTX BASQUES 64 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 64 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 60
2019-09-08 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 080231 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 62.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 75SW 0NW. 50 KT.......140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..320NE 600SE 660SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 62.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.2N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT...140NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...320NE 330SE 360SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 300SE 300SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 62.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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