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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
2019-09-07 22:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 772 FONT15 KNHC 072045 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ILE ST PIERRE 34 48 17(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 77 13(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BURGEO NFLD 50 7 49(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BURGEO NFLD 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 81 17(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PTX BASQUES 64 X 56(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SYDNEY NS 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SYDNEY NS 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SYDNEY NS 64 31 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 64 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BAR HARBOR ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-07 22:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 43.9, -63.9 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 59
2019-09-07 22:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072044 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.9N 63.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should cross the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax during the next few hours, then move across eastern Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The center should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Osbourne Head, Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across much of Nova Scotia, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread over portions of Nova Scotia during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Maine during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday Night: Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 59
2019-09-07 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 749 WTNT25 KNHC 072044 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 600SE 720SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.2N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.4N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 63.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Graphics
2019-09-07 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 20:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 21:38:21 GMT
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