je.st
news
Tag: posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 11:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 09:59:42 GMT
Tags: map
potential
storm
surge
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-09-04 10:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040859 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016 The overall structure of Hermine has changed little during the past 6 hours. A ring of shallow convection has developed within 60-100 n mi northwest through northeast of the center, possibly due to that portion of the circulation passing over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are 29-30C. An earlier ASCAT-B pass indicated that winds had decreased to 50-55 kt, and recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft confirms that Hermine has peak winds of 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 065/10 kt. Hermine is expected to move slowly northward and perhaps erratically during the next 36 hours as the post-tropical cyclone begins to interact with an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough that is gradually becoming more negatively tilted based on water vapor imagery. By 36-48 hours, Hermine is expected to become vertically stacked beneath a cut-off low, which could result in the cyclone briefly stalling south of southern New England before lifting out to the northeast by 72 hours. The models are in fairly good agreement on this developing track scenario through about 36 hours, but then diverge significantly after that with the UKMET model turning Hermine farther west closer to the New Jersey coast while the ECMWF lifts out Hermine more quickly. The GFS solution lies between these two extremes, and the new forecast track closely follows that model. However, there remains low confidence in any particular model. Little change in strength is likely today. However, by late tonight and on Monday, the models indicate that at least 6 deg C of cooling in the mid-/upper-levels will occur when Hermine's low-level circulation moves underneath the cut-off low. The combination of the much cooler air aloft over SSTs of at least 27-28C should generate strong instability and some inner-core convection, possibly resulting in a Hermine making the transition to a subtropical cyclone and strengthening back to hurricane force. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should slowly weaken after 48 hours when the system will be moving over much cooler water north of the Gulf Stream. The intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the GFS-ECMWF model solutions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into midweek. 2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within the warning area during this time. 3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. 4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat. 5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 36.8N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 37.2N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0600Z 37.7N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 06/0600Z 38.5N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/0600Z 39.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/0600Z 40.3N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-09-04 10:44:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 040844 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 7(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 3(23) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 10(20) 5(25) 2(27) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 11(23) 6(29) 2(31) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WORCESTER MA 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 8(24) 10(34) 5(39) 2(41) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 8(24) 9(33) 4(37) 1(38) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BOSTON MA 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 9(24) 11(35) 6(41) 2(43) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HYANNIS MA 34 3 10(13) 12(25) 12(37) 13(50) 7(57) 2(59) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 4 15(19) 12(31) 14(45) 13(58) 6(64) 2(66) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 1(21) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 10(12) 12(24) 11(35) 12(47) 6(53) 2(55) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 2 11(13) 13(26) 9(35) 10(45) 3(48) 1(49) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 34 2 10(12) 13(25) 9(34) 11(45) 4(49) X(49) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 1 9(10) 11(21) 9(30) 10(40) 4(44) 1(45) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 2 12(14) 15(29) 10(39) 12(51) 4(55) 1(56) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 6(17) 3(20) 1(21) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 9(30) 3(33) 1(34) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 15(19) 16(35) 13(48) 11(59) 4(63) 1(64) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 3 13(16) 17(33) 11(44) 9(53) 3(56) 1(57) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 13(15) 14(29) 9(38) 9(47) 2(49) 1(50) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 11(13) 12(25) 9(34) 8(42) 3(45) X(45) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 2 10(12) 12(24) 9(33) 8(41) 2(43) 1(44) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 2 9(11) 11(22) 7(29) 8(37) 2(39) 1(40) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 12(15) 15(30) 9(39) 8(47) 2(49) 1(50) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 7(26) 1(27) 1(28) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 9(11) 11(22) 7(29) 7(36) 2(38) X(38) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 13(16) 16(32) 9(41) 7(48) 2(50) 1(51) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) DOVER DE 34 3 8(11) 12(23) 7(30) 6(36) 1(37) 1(38) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 4(20) 1(21) 1(22) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 11(15) 15(30) 7(37) 6(43) 2(45) X(45) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 12(16) 14(30) 8(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 9(13) 12(25) 6(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 4(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 3( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
cyclone
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-04 10:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 36.8, -70.8 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 28
2016-09-04 10:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 040843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 70.8W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Duck, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Duck to west of Watch Hill * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 70.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, the cyclone is forecast to intensify to hurricane force late tonight and on Monday. Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on recent reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday, and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
advisory
cyclone
Sites : [224] [225] [226] [227] [228] [229] [230] [231] [232] [233] [234] [235] [236] [237] [238] [239] [240] [241] [242] [243] next »