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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 07:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.3, -68.4 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 31A
2016-09-05 07:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050552 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 68.4W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight. A northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly offshore through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through tonight. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-05 05:10:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 02:58:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 03:06:34 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-09-05 04:57:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050257 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with all of the deep convection located well north of the center. Deep convection associated with the system has increased over the northern and northwestern portions of the circulation this evening, but it does not appear that there has been an increase in wind speed. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with recent SFMR wind observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft has also recently reported a minimum pressure of 997 mb. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but the global models indicate that weakening should begin by late Monday. Continued weakening is expected during the remainder of the forecast period, and both the ECMWF and GFS dissipate the cyclone by day 5, and this is now reflected in the official forecast. Hermine has continued to move eastward since the previous advisory, but the most recent fix from the aircraft suggests that the eastward motion may be ending. A shortwave trough moving off the coast of North Carolina should cause Hermine to turn northwestward later tonight, then a slow north-northwestward or northward motion should continue into Tuesday. After that time, the cyclone should turn northeastward around the western portion of the mid- to upper-level ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The NHC forecast track is once again a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models, but has been adjusted slightly eastward based on the more eastward initial position. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft and a recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 37.2N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1200Z 37.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/0000Z 38.7N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/1200Z 39.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/0000Z 39.8N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/0000Z 40.6N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/0000Z 42.5N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2016-09-05 04:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 050256 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) WORCESTER MA 34 4 9(13) 5(18) 2(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 10(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) BOSTON MA 34 5 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) HYANNIS MA 34 12 16(28) 6(34) 5(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 19 19(38) 6(44) 6(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 34 9 13(22) 6(28) 3(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 6 10(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) NEW HAVEN CT 34 6 11(17) 5(22) 1(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) HARTFORD CT 34 5 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 34 9 13(22) 5(27) 3(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 34 12 17(29) 6(35) 3(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 7 12(19) 5(24) 1(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 5 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) NEWARK NJ 34 3 9(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) TRENTON NJ 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NWS EARLE NJ 34 5 8(13) 4(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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