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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 26A
2016-09-04 01:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 032348 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 ...HERMINE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 72.6W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 195 MI...316 KM SE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 72.6 West. Hermine is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed are expected by Sunday, followed by a slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and Hermine is expected to intensify to hurricane force on Sunday. Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday, and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over far southeastern Virginia and the Atlantic coastal portion of Maryland through Monday morning. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over southern Delaware, southern and eastern New Jersey, and Long Island through Monday morning. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 00:10:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 22:10:12 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 00:10:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 22:10:12 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-03 23:08:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 20:57:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-09-03 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032057 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 Hermine has the look of an extratropical cyclone this afternoon, with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern semicircle. This descending air resulted in a band of very strong winds over portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, and those winds along with SFMR data from the aircraft support an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. Hermine has an expansive wind field, with 34-kt winds extending about 200 miles from the center. Hermine is still expected to interact with a shortwave trough in the next couple of days over warm SSTs, which should result in some intensification, although the global models are a little less bullish this cycle. The NHC forecast continues to show Hermine at or near hurricane intensity for the next 72 hours, with slow weakening expected thereafter. After moving due eastward earlier today, the initial motion is now back toward the east-northeast at around 10 kt. Hermine should turn northward and slow to a crawl as it merges with the upper-level trough, and the NHC track shows only 2-3 kt of forward speed from 24 through 96 hours. The spread in the track model guidance has increased this cycle, with the UKMET and GFS now showing more of a westward motion and are slower to begin moving Hermine northeastward. The ECMWF has trended eastward and is much faster, taking Hermine south of Cape Cod in about 4 days, while the GFS and UKMET are still centered offshore of New Jersey at that time. Given the spread, and the possibility of looping motions during the interaction with the upper trough, confidence in the details of the track forecast remains quite low. The new NHC track tries to maintain some continuity with the last one, but lies to the right of the previous one in the first 12-24 hours due to the more easterly motion of Hermine today. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours. After that time, the NHC track is faster than the new consensus but slower than the previous forecast, reflecting the increasing spread at those times and low confidence in any particular solution. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into midweek. 2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within the warning area during this time. 3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. 4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat. 5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 36.2N 73.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1800Z 37.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0600Z 37.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/1800Z 38.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 06/1800Z 38.8N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 07/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/1800Z 41.0N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brennan
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