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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2016-09-04 22:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 042054 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 3(19) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) PORTLAND ME 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 5(16) 3(19) 1(20) CONCORD NH 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 7(25) 3(28) 1(29) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 3 10(13) 11(24) 5(29) 6(35) 2(37) 1(38) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 9(12) 11(23) 4(27) 6(33) 1(34) 1(35) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 4 10(14) 11(25) 5(30) 8(38) 2(40) 1(41) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 11 18(29) 12(41) 6(47) 8(55) 4(59) X(59) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 18 23(41) 12(53) 5(58) 8(66) 3(69) X(69) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 8 16(24) 14(38) 5(43) 8(51) 2(53) 1(54) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 5 15(20) 12(32) 4(36) 6(42) 1(43) X(43) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 5 15(20) 12(32) 5(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 4 13(17) 11(28) 4(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 8 18(26) 14(40) 6(46) 6(52) 1(53) 1(54) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) MONTAUK POINT 34 11 23(34) 15(49) 6(55) 5(60) 2(62) X(62) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 7 17(24) 13(37) 5(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48) ISLIP NY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 5 13(18) 12(30) 4(34) 4(38) 1(39) X(39) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 12(16) 10(26) 4(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) NEWARK NJ 34 4 11(15) 9(24) 3(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) TRENTON NJ 34 2 10(12) 8(20) 3(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 34 5 12(17) 10(27) 4(31) 4(35) X(35) 1(36) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 2(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 11(16) 8(24) 3(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 8(12) 6(18) 2(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 2(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-04 22:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.2, -69.1 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 30
2016-09-04 22:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 042053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 69.1W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Watch Hill, Rhode Island eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Fenwick Island, Delaware southward, and also discontinued for Delaware Bay north of Slaughter Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fenwick Island to Sagamore Beach * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 69.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow north-northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain at or near hurricane strength for the next day or so, and begin to gradually weaken by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours on the North Shore of Long Island east of Flushing and on the south shore of Long Island east of Rockaway Inlet. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rehoboth Beach, DE to Montauk Point, NY including the North Shore of Long Island east of Flushing...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly offshore through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 30
2016-09-04 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 042052 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WATCH HILL...RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM FENWICK ISLAND...DELAWARE SOUTHWARD...AND ALSO DISCONTINUED FOR DELAWARE BAY NORTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FENWICK ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 69.1W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......160NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 180SE 170SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..230NE 280SE 300SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 69.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.9N 69.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 50SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 39.1N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 50SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.6N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.2N 69.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.5N 61.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-04 19:45:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 17:45:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 15:05:37 GMT
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