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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 05:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 03:50:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 05:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 03:50:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-09-04 04:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040254 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 Hermine has changed little in structure since the last advisory, with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern semicircle. Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure had risen to 998 mb, and that 55-60 kt surface winds were present about 70 n mi northwest of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. Hermine continues to move east-northeastward with the initial motion of 075/11. During the next 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough currently moving through the northeastern United States will move close to, and then over the top of, the post-tropical cyclone. During this evolution, Hermine is expected to move slowly northward and then northwestward as it makes at least a partial cyclonic loop. While the track guidance is in fair agreement for the first 48-72 hours, there remains significant spread later in the period on how fast the cyclone will move out to sea after it merges with the trough. The UKMET is very slow to move the system out, while the ECMWF is much faster. The GFS is between these extremes, and the current run shows a little faster motion than the previous run. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast through 72 hours, and then is somewhat faster in moving the system to the east-northeast. Overall, there remains low confidence in any particular model solution, and it should be noted that the GFS and UKMET both bring the center closer to land than the official forecast. Little change in strength is likely tonight. On Sunday and Monday, the interaction with the upper-level trough is expected to provide more favorable conditions for strengthening while the system is over sea surface temperatures of 28C or warmer, and the dynamical models all show some deepening during this period. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Hermine to become a hurricane-force low. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should slowly weaken after 48 hours, and this is indicated in the forecast as well. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into midweek. 2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within the warning area during this time. 3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. 4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat. 5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 36.5N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/1200Z 37.1N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0000Z 37.6N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/1200Z 37.9N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 06/0000Z 38.3N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/0000Z 39.0N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/0000Z 40.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/0000Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-04 04:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 02:50:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 02:46:32 GMT
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-09-04 04:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 040247 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 4(21) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 6(24) 3(27) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 10(20) 7(27) 5(32) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 8(22) 12(34) 7(41) 3(44) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 9(25) 11(36) 7(43) 2(45) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 12(31) 9(40) 4(44) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 3 9(12) 10(22) 9(31) 13(44) 8(52) 4(56) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 4 13(17) 12(29) 8(37) 14(51) 7(58) 4(62) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 3 9(12) 11(23) 9(32) 15(47) 6(53) 3(56) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 11(14) 13(27) 12(39) 12(51) 5(56) 2(58) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 11(14) 12(26) 11(37) 13(50) 5(55) 2(57) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 2 8(10) 11(21) 9(30) 14(44) 6(50) 2(52) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW LONDON CT 34 3 12(15) 13(28) 10(38) 13(51) 7(58) 2(60) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 9(20) 4(24) 1(25) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 5( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 10(35) 4(39) 2(41) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 15(19) 15(34) 11(45) 12(57) 6(63) 2(65) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 1(19) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ISLIP NY 34 4 14(18) 16(34) 11(45) 13(58) 5(63) 1(64) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 1(19) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 13(16) 15(31) 12(43) 12(55) 5(60) 1(61) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 11(14) 13(27) 12(39) 11(50) 5(55) 2(57) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 3 11(14) 13(27) 11(38) 11(49) 5(54) 1(55) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 34 3 10(13) 13(26) 11(37) 11(48) 4(52) 1(53) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 14(17) 16(33) 12(45) 12(57) 5(62) 1(63) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 8(24) 9(33) 4(37) X(37) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 10(13) 13(26) 11(37) 10(47) 5(52) X(52) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 4 17(21) 17(38) 11(49) 10(59) 4(63) 1(64) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 1(16) 1(17) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 7(28) 3(31) X(31) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 4 9(13) 14(27) 10(37) 9(46) 3(49) 1(50) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 4( 7) 9(16) 7(23) 8(31) 2(33) X(33) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 7(24) 3(27) X(27) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 5 14(19) 16(35) 9(44) 10(54) 3(57) 1(58) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 16(21) 16(37) 9(46) 8(54) 3(57) X(57) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 7(24) 8(32) 3(35) X(35) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 5 12(17) 13(30) 8(38) 8(46) 3(49) X(49) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 3 2( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 5(19) 2(21) X(21) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 4 4( 8) 9(17) 5(22) 7(29) 2(31) X(31) NORFOLK VA 34 4 5( 9) 8(17) 6(23) 7(30) 1(31) 1(32) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 6(10) 9(19) 6(25) 6(31) 2(33) X(33) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 4 4( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 4( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 5(23) 2(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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