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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-08 04:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 187 WTNT43 KNHC 080244 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 A very timely ASCAT pass indicated that the winds associated with the depression have increased to 35 kt, and also that the center was a little east of the location previously indicated. This is very common in systems during the formative stage. Based on the ASCAT data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene, the eighth named storm of the season. The satellite presentation has also improved during the past several hours, and now the cyclone has large cyclonically curved convective bands to the south of the center. The outflow is fair in all quadrants. Helene will be moving over warm waters and within an environment of light shear through the next 3 to 4 days, and most of the guidance responds to that environment by gradually strengthening the cyclone. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus, and brings Helene to hurricane intensity in about 3 days. Currently, Helene is embedded within a southwest monsoon-type flow, and is moving toward the west at about 9 or 10 knots. However, as the cyclone moves away from the African coast, it will become steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge and should then increase in forward speed. Most of the track models are in extremely good agreement, at least for the next 3 days when the confidence in the forecast is high. At the long range, a mid-level trough is expected to develop over the central Atlantic, forcing the cyclone to turn more to the northwest and even north later on. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and basically on top of the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.6N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.8N 19.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 14.8N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 17.0N 33.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 18.5N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 20.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-08 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 103 FONT13 KNHC 080244 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PRAIA CVI 34 X 6( 6) 45(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) PRAIA CVI 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PRAIA CVI 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SANTA MARIA CV 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-08 04:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Helene was located near 13.6, -18.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-08 04:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 041 WTNT33 KNHC 080244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 18.5W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite data indicate that the depression over the far eastern Atlantic has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Helene. The center of the tropical storm is a little to the east of previously indicated position, and at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 18.5 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 hours. On this track, Helene will be passing very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands during Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days, and Helene could become a hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area Saturday night or on Sunday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-08 04:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 506 WTNT23 KNHC 080243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 18.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 18.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 18.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.8N 19.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.3N 22.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 25.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.4N 28.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N 33.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 39.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 18.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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