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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-08 11:15:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Helene was located near 13.7, -19.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Update Statement
2018-09-08 11:15:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 515 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 533 WTNT63 KNHC 080914 TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 515 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-08 10:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 505 FONT13 KNHC 080850 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 19.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PRAIA CVI 34 X 29(29) 13(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PRAIA CVI 50 X 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PRAIA CVI 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-08 10:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 379 WTNT33 KNHC 080850 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...HELENE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 19.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 19.6 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion will likely continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected early next week. On the forecast track, Helene will pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-08 10:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 380 WTNT43 KNHC 080850 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 Helene's structure appears to be quickly improving this morning. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. Several microwave passes overnight indicate that the cyclone has become more vertically aligned, likely due to a reformation of the center beneath the strongest convection. In fact, a 0733 UTC SSMIS image shows the early development of a low- to mid-level eye, which is often a precursor to intensification. Nearly all of the intensity guidance seems to have picked up on the improved structure of Helene, and the models show far more intensification than before, especially through 48 h. Consequently, a significant change has been made to the intensity forecast, which now calls for Helene to become a hurricane on Sunday while it is near the Cabo Verde islands. Once the cyclone passes the islands, the environment is expected to remain favorable for intensification for at least 72 h. By the end of the forecast period, all of the guidance shows some weakening due primarily to increased shear associated with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. Given the recent microwave imagery signature, low shear, and warm SSTs, its possible that the current forecast is still too conservative, especially for the first 36 h of the forecast, and further adjustments could be required if it becomes clear that Helene is intensifying at a faster rate than expected. Smoothing through the possible reformation of the center, Helene appears to be moving west with an initial motion around 275/10 kt. Little change was required to the track forecast, which has been nudged only slightly south for the first 48 h of the forecast, in line with the latest track model consensus. A westward motion should continue for the next couple of days, as Helene is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the aforementioned trough over the central Atlantic should force Helene to turn toward the northwest. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.7N 19.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.1N 23.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 15.4N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 17.2N 35.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 19.0N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 22.0N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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