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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-09 07:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 05:42:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 03:28:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-09 07:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER BANDS OF HELENE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Helene was located near 13.4, -23.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 7A
2018-09-09 07:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 315 WTNT33 KNHC 090542 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 200 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...OUTER BANDS OF HELENE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 23.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 23.4 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands later today. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-09 05:02:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 03:02:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 03:02:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-09 04:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 252 WTNT43 KNHC 090242 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 Helene continues this evening with a large area of convective bands that wrap about three-quarters around the center. A blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB with the CIMSS' SATCON gives an intensity of 50 kt, unchanged from the previous advisory. The tropical storm is situated just south of the upper-level subtropical ridge, which is inducing weak southeasterly vertical shear. That along with warm 28C waters and a moist, unstable atmosphere should support at least steady intensification for the next two days. By day three, however, the shear will increase out of the southwest as Helene moves close to an upper-level low. Simultaneously, the SSTs will drop to near 26C and the mid-troposphere should dry. The new intensity forecast shows a peak of 90 kt at 48 h, with gradual to steady weakening thereafter. This is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus (minus the much weaker HMON solution) with a higher peak intensity than the previous advisory but a slightly faster decay. Helene's initial position was aided by the availability of a 2222Z ASCAT pass, which showed it to be somewhat farther south than earlier estimated. The initial motion is analyzed to be 260/11, as it is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. The tropical cyclone should gradually turn toward the west-northwest by Monday, then toward the north-northwest by Wednesday. The new track forecast - based on the TVCN multimodel consensus - is slightly south of the previous advisory throughout the forecast period, mainly because of the southward initial position. The aforementioned scatterometer pass allowed for a more accurate assessment of the initial size, which is somewhat larger than analyzed earlier. The new wind radii prediction indicates a larger Helene than the previous advisory, and is based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.2N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 13.3N 24.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 13.8N 27.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 14.5N 30.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 15.3N 33.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 17.1N 37.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 19.5N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 22.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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