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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 5A
2018-09-08 19:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 660 WTNT33 KNHC 081736 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 200 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...HELENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 21.1W ABOUT 195 MI...440 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 21.1 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Helene will pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that Helene is becoming better organized, and strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days. Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-08 16:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:46:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:46:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-08 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 532 WTNT43 KNHC 081444 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The structure of Helene continues to improve, with convective banding wrapping around almost completely around the center of the cyclone in visible satellite imagery. Infrared imagery suggests this convection is not very strong at the moment, though, and this may be why recent scatterometer data indicates that the storm has not strengthened since the last advisory. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the scatterometer winds. All indications are that Helene should strengthen through at least 72 h in a light vertical shear environment over sea surface temperatures near 27C. This part of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus. However, there are a couple of alternate forecast scenarios. The first is that Helene could rapidly intensify and become stronger than currently forecast. The second is that a large plume of African dust and associated dry air that has spread over the northern Cabo Verde Islands starts entraining into the cyclone and inhibits intensification. The former alternative seems more likely than the latter at this time, and if RI begins later intensity forecasts will need to be increased. After 72 h, Helene is expected to encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, which should cause the system to weaken. Helene's center appears to have again re-formed, this time a little to the south. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 265/11. Other than a slight nudge to the south due to the initial position, there is little change in the forecast track for Helene. The cyclone should moved westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days on the south side of the subtropical ridge, then turn northwestward in response to the aforementioned trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.4N 20.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.6N 22.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 13.9N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.6N 27.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 15.3N 30.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 17.0N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 19.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 22.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-08 16:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 501 FONT13 KNHC 081444 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PRAIA CVI 34 24 28(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PRAIA CVI 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTA MARIA CV 34 10 10(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-08 16:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Helene was located near 13.4, -20.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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