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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-09 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Helene was located near 13.2, -22.8 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 7

2018-09-09 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 095 WTNT33 KNHC 090239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 22.8W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 22.8 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). The system is expected to turn toward the west-northwest by Monday at about the same rate of forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Helene is anticipated to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2018-09-09 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 077 FONT13 KNHC 090239 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PRAIA CVI 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTA MARIA CV 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 7

2018-09-09 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 447 WTNT23 KNHC 090238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.8W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.8W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N 24.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.8N 27.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 30.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.3N 33.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.1N 37.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 19.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 22.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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