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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-08-27 17:13:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271512 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000 UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low. For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant development in the short term. However, the models continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and 5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. 3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-27 16:39:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 14:39:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 15:24:57 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-27 16:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 14.2, -61.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-08-27 16:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 271438 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 33(51) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 14(42) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 41(51) 1(52) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 12(44) X(44) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 49(55) 1(56) X(56) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X 2( 2) 62(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 56(57) 9(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 1 8( 9) 26(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT CROIX 34 1 20(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 71 22(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) AVES 50 12 24(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AVES 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 13
2019-08-27 16:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271438 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 61.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Isla Saona to Samana. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Grenada and its dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 61.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to subside later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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