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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 62

2019-09-08 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 081452 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-09-08 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Dorian was located near 50.0, -59.4 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 62

2019-09-08 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...50.0N 59.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CAPE WHITTLE QUEBEC ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF CAPE ST. GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Nova Scotia. The Canadian Hurricane Center has also discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning and the Hurricane Watch for the Magdalen Islands and the Tropical Storm Warning for Prince Edward Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 50.0 North, longitude 59.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador later today and then enter the North Atlantic this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water. The post- tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength after passing Newfoundland later today, and it is forecast to be absorbed by another large low pressure system in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). Stephenville, Newfoundland, recently reported sustained winds of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Hurricane Warning area in Newfoundland at this time, and hurricane conditions are expected later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador. SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 62

2019-09-08 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 081451 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 59.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 50 KT.......140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......300NE 300SE 210SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 900SE 780SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 59.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.4N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.3N 55.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...390NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.7N 49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...390NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.2N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.0N 59.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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