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Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-07 16:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 14:57:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 15:24:48 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 57

2019-09-07 16:54:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 071453 CCA TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CORRECTED 12 H STATUS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS FOR NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 66.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 540SE 600SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 66.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W...OVER NOVA SCOTIA MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N 66.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 57

2019-09-07 16:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071452 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the north and east. However, the cyclone still has persistent convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a hurricane on this advisory. NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center. Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial motion of 040/25 kt. The current motion should bring the center of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter. Subsequently, Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the various consensus aids. Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and associated surface frontal zone. The global models agree on a gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete. However, the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as it moves through portions of eastern Canada. The global models also agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by another extratropical low in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that are made for tropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 42.0N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA 24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 57

2019-09-07 16:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 66.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of Massachusetts, as well as for Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 66.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general motion toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone as it moves across eastern Canada tonight or on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Yarmouth, Nova Scotia recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum pressure of 955.3 mb (28.21 inches) as the center passed just to the west about an hour ago. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area in Maine by this afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through tonight: Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches. Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 57

2019-09-07 16:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 071451 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 34 4 44(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BURGEO NFLD 34 17 63(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PTX BASQUES 34 41 57(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PTX BASQUES 50 X 83(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PTX BASQUES 64 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 79 19(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) EDDY POINT NS 64 5 36(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SYDNEY NS 34 86 12(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SYDNEY NS 50 5 78(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SYDNEY NS 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 34 78 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HALIFAX NS 64 57 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MONCTON NB 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) MONCTON NB 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) EASTPORT ME 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BAR HARBOR ME 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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