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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-09-07 11:06:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 09:06:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 09:06:08 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 56
2019-09-07 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 460 WTNT45 KNHC 070839 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Dorian is gradually becoming less organized. The cyclone is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear with most of its deep convection located to the north and east of the estimated center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind field has expanded significantly, and tropical-storm-force winds have been observed over far southeastern Massachusetts. Dorian is racing northeastward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 050/22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded in the fast mid-latitude flow, and it should continue to move quickly northeastward toward Nova Scotia later today. After the cyclone passes Nova Scotia, it is forecast to move through Newfoundland and Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and not far from the various consensus aids. Dorian is expected to gradually weaken due to even stronger southwesterly wind shear and much colder SSTs to the north of the Gulf Stream current. The combined influences of these cold waters and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Dorian to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours. However, the post-tropical cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as it moves through portions of eastern Canada. The global models are in good agreement that the post-tropical cyclone should slowly weaken and ultimately become absorbed by another extratropical low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that are made for tropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada beginning later today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 39.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 46.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1800Z 50.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 52.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 57.5N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 56
2019-09-07 10:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 070839 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 30(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 53(53) 20(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PTX BASQUES 34 X 85(85) 10(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PTX BASQUES 50 X 21(21) 47(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) PTX BASQUES 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) EDDY POINT NS 34 9 89(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 50(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) EDDY POINT NS 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 6 87(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SYDNEY NS 50 X 58(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SYDNEY NS 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 37 35(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 1 86(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) HALIFAX NS 64 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) YARMOUTH NS 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) YARMOUTH NS 50 23 7(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MONCTON NB 34 6 58(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ST JOHN NB 34 16 31(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) EASTPORT ME 34 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BAR HARBOR ME 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-07 10:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 39.7, -68.1 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 56
2019-09-07 10:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 070838 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 68.1W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and the Lower North Shore Quebec. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 68.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds. Thereafter, Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern Canada by tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A NOAA buoy at Nantucket Shoals, Massachusetts, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A Weatherflow observation on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts during the next several hours. These conditions should spread into the warning area in Maine by this afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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