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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-09-07 19:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 17:37:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 17:37:10 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 58
2019-09-07 19:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071735 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane- force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition. The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data. There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-07 19:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 42.8, -64.9 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 58
2019-09-07 19:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 741 WTNT35 KNHC 071734 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Special Advisory Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 64.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF EASTPORT MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general motion toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. While Dorian is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, it is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds as it moves across eastern Canada this afternoon through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). NOAA buoy 44011 to the southwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A station at Baccarro Point, Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area in Maine during the next several hours. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning this afternoon, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through tonight: Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches. Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 58
2019-09-07 19:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 071733 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1800 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.9W AT 07/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 480SE 330SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.9W AT 07/1800Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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