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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-09-04 16:58:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:58:07 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2019-09-04 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 041457 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 9(53) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 13(67) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 6(66) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 1(62) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 69(69) 2(71) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) X(54) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 64(64) 1(65) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) X(61) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) X(42) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) X(38) X(38) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 13(34) X(34) X(34) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 14(38) X(38) X(38) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 18(45) X(45) X(45) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 17(62) X(62) X(62) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 12(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 26(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 59(80) 13(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 23(75) X(75) X(75) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 5( 7) 27(34) 15(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 4( 5) 22(27) 61(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 7( 9) 38(47) 44(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 66(72) 5(77) X(77) X(77) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 6(54) X(54) X(54) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 7( 9) 43(52) 40(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 66(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) SURF CITY NC 34 2 5( 7) 50(57) 35(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 15(15) 47(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 7( 9) 60(69) 23(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 24(24) 36(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) BALD HEAD ISL 34 6 38(44) 47(91) 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 4( 4) 59(63) 22(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 28(28) 30(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FLORENCE SC 34 3 20(23) 37(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) FLORENCE SC 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 14(17) 10(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 27(30) 59(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 2( 2) 49(51) 11(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 12 53(65) 31(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 10(11) 61(72) 7(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GEORGETOWN SC 34 8 63(71) 25(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 15(16) 52(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 34 42 51(93) 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CHARLESTON SC 50 2 48(50) 20(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 68 28(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 3 45(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 10(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 34 76 17(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAVANNAH GA 50 5 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 90 X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) KINGS BAY GA 50 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 16 6(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 72 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) JACKSONVILLE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 7 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 45
2019-09-04 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041457 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 79.7W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. The Storm Surge Warning has been been discontinued from Port Canaveral, Florida southward. The Hurricane Warning for the northeastern coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County line to Ponte Vedra Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Florida has been discontinued south of the Volusia/Brevard County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the progress of the hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 79.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia coast, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by late tonight and Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast. Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 45
2019-09-04 16:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041456 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AND THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM PORT CANAVERAL...FLORIDA SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT CANAVERAL FL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 79.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 55 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 79.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 80.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.1N 78.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.8N 76.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 47.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-04 15:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Dorian was located near 29.8, -79.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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