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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-09-04 22:57:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:57:07 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 46

2019-09-04 22:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE... ...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague, Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County line FL to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County FL line to Savannah River * North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the progress of the hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north- northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41008 near the Georgia coast recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions beginning by late tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night. Tropical storm conditions along the northeastern Florida coast should subside tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

2019-09-04 22:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 042056 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) X(43) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 62(62) 1(63) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72(72) X(72) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 65(68) X(68) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 72(74) X(74) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) X(52) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 60(72) X(72) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 16(61) X(61) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) X(32) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 23(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 28(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 34(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 43(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 2 5( 7) 11(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 5( 7) 21(28) 10(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 11(12) 50(62) 36(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 16(16) 70(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 55(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FAYETTEVILLE 34 3 23(26) 25(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 11(14) 68(82) 11(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 1( 1) 37(38) 23(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 30(34) 55(89) 9(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 55(56) 29(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 24(24) 36(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 35(39) 51(90) 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 59(61) 23(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 29(29) 29(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SURF CITY NC 34 4 43(47) 47(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SURF CITY NC 50 X 3( 3) 62(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 56(60) 35(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 7( 7) 59(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 34 32 57(89) 11(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 1 41(42) 50(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 7( 7) 62(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) FLORENCE SC 34 8 54(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 6 17(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) LITTLE RIVER 34 17 73(90) 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 38(39) 34(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 58 39(97) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 3 67(70) 17(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 27(27) 24(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GEORGETOWN SC 34 67 32(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 2 75(77) 6(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CHARLESTON SC 34 91 9(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 19 58(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CHARLESTON SC 64 1 16(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 33 14(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAVANNAH GA 50 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 46

2019-09-04 22:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042055 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO POQUOSON VIRGINIA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND. THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FL TO POQUOSON VA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT * TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 79.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.9N 74.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 65.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-09-04 21:56:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE... ...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Dorian was located near 30.6, -79.8 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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