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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-09-04 10:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 08:55:49 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

2019-09-04 10:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 040855 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 40(56) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 48(66) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 36(61) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 11(54) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 23(69) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 6(62) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 3(51) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) X(41) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 34(41) X(41) X(41) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 43(55) X(55) X(55) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 14(33) X(33) X(33) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 46(90) X(90) X(90) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 57(65) X(65) X(65) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) X(38) X(38) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 23(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 46(54) 28(82) X(82) X(82) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 27(43) X(43) X(43) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 51(69) 23(92) X(92) X(92) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 39(68) X(68) X(68) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) X(40) X(40) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) 50(72) 20(92) X(92) X(92) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 34(67) X(67) X(67) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) X(39) X(39) SURF CITY NC 34 2 3( 5) 12(17) 59(76) 9(85) X(85) X(85) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 13(48) X(48) X(48) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 4( 6) 18(24) 55(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 20(23) 40(63) 31(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 58(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) FLORENCE SC 34 2 5( 7) 27(34) 16(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 6( 8) 42(50) 35(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 34(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 35(39) 40(79) 14(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) 34(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 28(31) 47(78) 13(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) 21(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 58(62) 29(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 9( 9) 39(48) 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 8 70(78) 11(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 19(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 34 13 65(78) 6(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAVANNAH GA 50 1 18(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 66 17(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) KINGS BAY GA 50 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 17(22) 4(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 34 85 8(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MAYPORT NS FL 50 12 13(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 64 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 54 13(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) JACKSONVILLE 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 44

2019-09-04 10:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040855 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become broad and less well-defined over the past several hours. The hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection that are causing winds of at least tropical storm force along portions of the northeast coast of Florida. Although the central pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft. Dorian will be traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some increase in vertical shear after 24 hours. The official intensity forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then shows a very slow weakening thereafter. This is close to the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. The system is expected to maintain close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North Carolina Outer Banks. Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or 330/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast reasoning. Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track remains close to the corrected multi-model consensus. Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 3. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern North Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 29.2N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 44

2019-09-04 10:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 320 WTNT35 KNHC 040854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 79.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet, FL has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Savannah River to Surf City NC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida today. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast. Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate Georgia coast and the coastal Carolinas today into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 44

2019-09-04 10:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040854 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER * NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET...FL TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 79.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 79.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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