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Tag: dorian

Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-05 10:52:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:52:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 09:25:17 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hurricane graphics graphics hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-09-05 10:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 08:51:21 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 48

2019-09-05 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050851 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in diameter on satellite and radar images. Earlier data from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity close to 100 kt at this time. Dorian should soon begin to experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at least slow weakening during the next couple of days. The official forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72 hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on the high side of the guidance suite. By 72 hours, the global models show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly asymmetric cloud pattern. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the system becoming extratropical by that time. Dorian's initial motion is about 010/6 kt. The hurricane is currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the north. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus. The forecast track and wind radii now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme southeastern New England. The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 31.7N 79.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48

2019-09-05 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 550 FONT15 KNHC 050850 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 16(35) 1(36) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 33(58) X(58) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 32(71) X(71) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) X(30) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 66(66) 4(70) X(70) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) 10(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 9(34) X(34) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) X(55) X(55) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 70(70) 1(71) X(71) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) X(61) X(61) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) X(34) X(34) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 26(46) X(46) X(46) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DANVILLE VA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 7( 8) 26(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 1 7( 8) 33(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 8( 9) 43(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 23(25) 52(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 2 8(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 27(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 77(81) 19(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 16(16) 78(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 2( 2) 74(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) FAYETTEVILLE 34 9 28(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) FAYETTEVILLE 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 6 91(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 67(67) 17(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 34 21 77(98) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 1 77(78) 18(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 39(39) 43(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) MOREHEAD CITY 34 31 68(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 1 84(85) 10(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 50(50) 31(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SURF CITY NC 34 60 40(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 1 89(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) SURF CITY NC 64 X 37(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) WILMINGTON NC 34 78 22(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 2 86(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 32(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BALD HEAD ISL 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 39 60(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 3 88(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) FLORENCE SC 34 38 5(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) FLORENCE SC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 35 51(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) LITTLE RIVER 64 2 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 76 18(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 64 16 41(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 85 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GEORGETOWN SC 64 32 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CHARLESTON SC 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 52 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 48

2019-09-05 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 79.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North Carolina within the next couple of hours, with hurricane conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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