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Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-05 04:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 02:56:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 03:25:13 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 47

2019-09-05 04:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050255 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Satellite imagery indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Dorian was a little better organized with a clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. This trend was confirmed with data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes, which measured a minimum central pressure of 955 mb. SFMR and flight-level winds support an initial intensity of 100 kt. In fact, Dvorak numbers also call for 100 kt. Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone. On the other hand, the wind field is expected to gradually expand during the next several days until the cyclone becomes extratropical near Atlantic Canada. Aircraft fixes yield a northward motion or 010 degrees at 6 kt. Dorian is already recurving as it is becoming steered by the south- southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving mid-level trough. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus. No significant change to the previous track forecast was necessary. The forecast motion should bring the core of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina during the next 6 to 12 hours and over the Outer Banks of North Carolina between 24 and 36 hours. Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from Georgia to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- threatening storm surges from this hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal Georgia into the eastern Carolinas overnight. On Thursday, there is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER NC OUTER BANKS 48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47

2019-09-05 04:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 050255 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) X(33) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 43(54) X(54) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 51(70) X(70) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 18(75) X(75) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) X(35) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 31(76) X(76) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) X(37) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 3(56) X(56) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 72(72) 4(76) X(76) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 3(37) X(37) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 68(68) X(68) X(68) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 7(39) X(39) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 3(35) X(35) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) X(43) X(43) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 48(55) X(55) X(55) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) X(30) X(30) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 23(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 5( 5) 37(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 8( 9) 59(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 2 12(14) 10(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 17(19) 26(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 37(40) 54(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 76(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 52(52) 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) FAYETTEVILLE 34 5 52(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) FAYETTEVILLE 50 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 68(71) 26(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 9( 9) 71(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 34 6 72(78) 20(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 15(15) 74(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 1( 1) 70(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 74(83) 15(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 22(22) 69(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 3( 3) 68(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SURF CITY NC 34 14 81(95) 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 1 56(57) 32(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SURF CITY NC 64 X 11(11) 22(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) WILMINGTON NC 34 28 70(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 2 70(72) 16(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 16(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BALD HEAD ISL 34 79 21(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 4 91(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 75(75) 10(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) FLORENCE SC 34 48 23(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) FLORENCE SC 50 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 11 5(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 80 20(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 4 86(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MYRTLE BEACH 34 91 9(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 25 72(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MYRTLE BEACH 64 2 63(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GEORGETOWN SC 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 57 39(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GEORGETOWN SC 64 4 36(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 90 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CHARLESTON SC 64 19 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAVANNAH GA 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 47

2019-09-05 04:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050255 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 79.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All watches and warnings for the east coast of Florida south of the Mouth of St. Mary's River have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River * North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the progress of the hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated on Thursday, with a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 12 hours, followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas tonight, with hurricane conditions beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft North of Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 47

2019-09-05 04:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050254 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO POQUOSON VA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SAVANNAH RIVER * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT * TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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