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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 28
2013-07-06 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061454 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2013-07-06 16:54:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 FINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED UNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST OF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY. DALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-06 11:08:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 08:38:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 09:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2013-07-06 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-06 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of DALILA was located near 17.0, -112.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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