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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 6A
2013-07-09 14:06:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091206 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 800 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 CORRECTED DISCUSSION SECTION ...CHANTAL OBSERVED BY BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE RADARS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 59.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * PUERTO RICO * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ RADARS FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHANTAL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM ...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-09 13:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 11:49:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 09:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-09 11:09:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 08:37:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2013 09:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-09 10:37:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090837 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND ASCAT DATA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CHANTAL LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 290/23. A CONTINUED FAST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE CHANTAL ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING...AND NEAR HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE CHANTAL TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER...TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR. PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS. ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.3N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.2N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 28.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-09 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL JUST EAST OF BARBADOS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Jul 9 the center of CHANTAL was located near 13.3, -58.4 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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