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Remnants of CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-10 23:07:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 20:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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chantal
Remnants of CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-07-10 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 102035 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 2100 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Remnants of CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-10 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102035 TCDAT3 REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL 12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Remnants of CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-10 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... ...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 the center of CHANTAL was located near 16.5, -73.7 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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remnants
at3al032013
chantal
Remnants of CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 12
2013-07-10 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 ...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... ...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 73.7W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL THE REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...JAMIACA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA OVER THE WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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