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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-10 19:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 17:49:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 15:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-10 19:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEARCHING FOR CHANTAL... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WORKING HARD TO FIND A CENTER... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 the center of CHANTAL was located near 16.5, -73.0 with movement W at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 11A
2013-07-10 19:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101748 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 200 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 ...SEARCHING FOR CHANTAL... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WORKING HARD TO FIND A CENTER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 73.0W ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JAMAICA ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY IF CHANTAL DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST. CHANTAL IS RACING WESTWARD NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. IF CHANTAL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY IF CHANTAL DEGENERATES INTO A WAVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HAITI TODAY...EVEN IF CHANTAL LOSES ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DECREASING. STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-10 17:08:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 14:58:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 15:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-10 17:02:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101502 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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