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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 9A
2013-07-10 07:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100547 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 200 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 ...CHANTAL BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 68.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARAHONA TO SAMANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL IS LOSING ORGANIZATION. AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. CHANTAL HAS MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EASTERN CUBA EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE CHANTAL REACHES HISPANIOLA...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-10 05:08:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 02:50:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 03:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-07-10 04:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100254 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL BECAME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE PLANE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACE RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 50 AND 42 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF CHANTAL COULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OR EVEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHANTAL AFTER THAT WILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS...WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE VERTICAL INTEGRITY. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND AND STRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. ABSENT RELIABLE CENTER FIXES...THE SPEEDY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE... 285/25...OF CHANTAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BASED ON AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT DATA THE CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH HAS A RESULTED IN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A SHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 18.6N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.6N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAND 48H 12/0000Z 22.6N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 13/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-07-10 04:49:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 100249 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0300 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 8 16 18 21 27 TROP DEPRESSION 2 23 32 37 34 34 28 TROPICAL STORM 92 69 56 44 44 43 41 HURRICANE 7 4 4 4 4 3 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 X X X 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) 1(23) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) X(21) 1(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 38(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CAPE BEATA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 10 17(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PONCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-10 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF CHANTAL PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9 the center of CHANTAL was located near 15.3, -66.2 with movement WNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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