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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-09-18 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 4A
2019-09-18 13:57:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 081 WTPZ35 KNHC 181157 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area later today or tonight, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 13:57:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 16.3, -103.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 13:57:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 11:57:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 10:16:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180857 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 17(41) 2(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 26(36) 18(54) 1(55) X(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 23(23) 22(45) 5(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 2 51(53) 12(65) 4(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) MANZANILLO 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 21(26) 7(33) X(33) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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