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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 7A
2019-09-19 07:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190540 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the center of Lorena moved nearby. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-19 07:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:40:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:58:26 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-19 04:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:46:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:46:20 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-19 04:44:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190244 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in the 37-GHz channel. The convective signature in infrared satellite imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot may be developing near the estimated center. Objective SATCON and ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a 65-kt hurricane. Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico. If the center stays just offshore, which several of the models show, then a strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF is the only model at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the next 12-24 hours. All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Based on this track, environmental conditions appear favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days. Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values. As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and on Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-19 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190243 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 29(37) 30(67) 2(69) 1(70) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 23(37) 1(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 4(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 54(56) 19(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 14(14) 17(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 20 26(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 52 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 50 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 15(18) 27(45) 13(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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