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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-19 01:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:51:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:58:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 22:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:49:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-18 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182048 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in banding around the center of Lorena this afternoon. Bands now wrap completely around the center, but there have been no recent microwave images to see if an eye has developed. The increase in organization has led to higher objective satellite intensity from UW/CIMSS, and a blend of the SAB and ADT estimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt. Additional strengthening is likely, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane tonight while it moves over warm water with low shear conditions. The storm is predicted to move very close to or over the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight and early Thursday, and the remainder of the intensity forecast will depend on how much land interaction occurs and the eventual structure of the storm afterward. If Lorena moves to the right of the official forecast, more significant weakening is likely and the storm would struggle to re-strengthen later in the period. The new NHC track forecast shows slightly less interaction of the core of the cyclone with land, and assumes Lorena will be able to continue strengthening while the shear remains low and it moves over very warm waters southeast of the Baja California peninsula. Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. The track guidance remains about the same as before, with the ECMWF taking the center inland over southwestern Mexico while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps it just offshore. The NHC forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory through 24 hours, but continues to show the center passing very close to southwestern Mexico. After that time, a narrow mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of Lorena, and this should lead to a west-northwestward motion with Lorena passing near or just south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus. Due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect and preparations to protect life in property should be rushed to completion. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required tonight or Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.9N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 22:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.. ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.9, -104.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-18 22:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.. ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 104.4W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area in the next few hours, and will spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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