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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180858 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is showing. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 12:23:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 16.1, -103.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180857 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 103.0W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 11:24:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:24:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:24:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is showing. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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