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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-19 13:57:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:57:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:58:20 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-19 13:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.2, -105.4 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 8A
2019-09-19 13:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191155 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area this morning, and then move back over water this afternoon. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west- central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area through this afternoon. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning as early Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-19 10:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:58:20 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-19 10:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190843 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65 kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and these winds are limited to a very small area near the center. Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest. Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will continue as a separate system through five days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula and others to the east. The NHC forecast follows the previous one, and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the peninsula. This forecast is highly uncertain at this time. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern Mexico today. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction currently occuring. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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