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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-20 23:02:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 951 WTPZ45 KNHC 202102 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt. However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the center. More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland Mexican coast. For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to to the left, depending on the new track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-20 23:01:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 23.2, -109.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 14
2019-09-20 23:01:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202101 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 109.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from of San Evaristo to Santa Rosalia, and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas. None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Lorena has been moving little during the past few hours, but the hurricane should begin a northwesterly track tonight. On this track, the core of the hurricane should move along the spine of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-09-20 23:01:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 202101 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 14(34) X(34) X(34) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 12(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 64 1(65) X(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAN JOSE CABO 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 64 18(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) LA PAZ 50 29 17(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LA PAZ 64 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X 43(43) 21(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LORETO 50 X 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LORETO 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) 7(43) X(43) X(43) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 14
2019-09-20 22:59:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 202059 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS. NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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