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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-20 20:14:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON... As of 12:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.9, -109.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 13A
2019-09-20 20:14:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201813 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 corrected initial latitude ...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lorena is now moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and Lorena will then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-20 20:14:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 18:14:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:44:54 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-20 16:58:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:58:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:44:54 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-20 16:52:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201452 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 65 kt. Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at 2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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