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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2014-09-12 04:50:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120250 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 120.0W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-09-12 04:50:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120250 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-09-12 04:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120250 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.0W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.0W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.7N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 120.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2014-09-11 23:19:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Sep 2014 20:41:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Sep 2014 21:08:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-11 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112040 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression has become somewhat less organized since this morning. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed, and the depression's center is nearly exposed on the northern edge of the main convective mass. Low-cloud motions also indicate that depression's circulation remains rather elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with the 1800 UTC satellite classification from TAFB. The depression should struggle to survive during the next few days. Moderate northeasterly shear should persist over the cyclone in the short term, making any significant intensification unlikely. In about a day or so, the depression should become embedded in an environment of low- to mid-level westerly flow and easterlies aloft, which should induce a stronger easterly shear. The forecast shear could be enough to cause the cyclone to shear apart, and remnant low status is now indicated in 48 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly lower than the previous one and no longer shows the depression reaching tropical storm strength, in accordance with the latest multi-model consensus IVCN. Based on the latest fixes, the center of the depression was relocated a little farther west than in previous advisory. The depression is moving north-northwestward, or 335/07, around the northwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge. As the cyclone moves into a col region during the next 12 to 24 hours, the track should bend northward and northeastward while the forward speed decreases considerably. Global models then show the depression accelerating on a general eastward course toward the large and intensifying circulation of Odile. The same guidance shows the depression either being absorbed by Odile or succumbing to prohibitively high wind shear and losing its identity in 2-3 days. The track forecast is similar to but just a tad to the right of the previous one, close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.3N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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