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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 5
2014-09-12 16:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 120.0W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2014-09-12 11:19:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 08:45:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 09:08:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-12 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 A 0538 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicates that the center of the depression is still located on the northeastern edge of the remaining deep convection, consistent with northeasterly shear of around 10 kt analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Easterly vertical shear is expected to gradually increase today, which should prevent any intensification. Thee official forecast continues to show the depression weakening to a remnant low in a couple of days and dissipating as it is absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Storm Odile by 72 hours. However, both of these could occur sooner than indicated. The depression has been drifting northward during the past few hours. The track guidance shows an eastward to east-southeastward motion developing during the next day or so as the depression comes under the influence of Odile's circulation. Given the recent lack of motion and a trend toward a slower forward speed in much of the track guidance this cycle, the new NHC track forecast is slower than the previous one through dissipation. This forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean and is on the fast side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.6N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162014)
2014-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 12 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 16.6, -120.2 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 4
2014-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120842 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 120.2W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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